Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the tension caused by the announcement of a new 28-article proposal for achieving ceasefire appeared – briefly – to have been contained. A Washington representative spoke of "substantial progress" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its retaliation: an extensive attack of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Negotiation and Warfare
The sequence of contrasting events captured the harsh reality of the outgoing year. By day, political struggles are fought: positive announcements are released from multiple capitals. Immense energy is expended on managing certain initiatives. By night, the Kremlin brutally reminds the world that, for them, military action persists as the primary tool for achieving "peace".
Nocturnal Warfare
As the offensive developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's defenselessness was laid bare. Ukraine is able to track projectile deployments from across the border, a ability provided through timely intelligence. From vantage locations, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been deployed to counter approaching guided weapons flew past – advanced fighter aircraft supplied to Ukraine by Western partners.
Moments later, Kyiv's air-defence systems activated: multiple launches deployed against a hostile projectile. This was a modern interception technology at work, presumably provided by partner states. Every launch creates sudden vibrations, rattling buildings. The instant of fear quickly gives way to grim resignation: possibly the incoming missile won't hit its mark this time, preventing destruction from ruin and another blackout.
Continuous Dangers
Following this, a automatic firearm opened up on a unmanned aircraft close by, part of a rapid response unit – most likely Western-made equipment. Sadly, the shots failed to hit the opposing UAV – it pressed on overhead toward its target.
Intermittently, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv greeted the daybreak reports: multiple fatalities, destruction and heating outages in multiple buildings as a result of the night's assault. As always, everyone still continued their routines – experiencing conflict. But those entire period demonstrated Ukraine's essential dependence on external assistance – a reliance that European nations are demonstrably unable to substitute in the immediate future.
Failed Diplomacy
The detailed framework from Washington sparked intense emotion, debate and deep concern – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after prior negotiation attempts and multilateral gatherings.
Every new initiative from Washington adheres to the identical sequence: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, manages to fend off. They stabilise the situation but never actually achieve victory. This cycle will, no doubt, endure.
Strategic Calculations
It is easy to blame specific actors of persistently promoting Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the whole story. Washington functions according to a principle understood by international relations experts: you cannot secure via talks what you have been unable to protect through force. The White House presumes that it is impossible to compel Moscow to surrender the areas that it presently holds in Ukraine's south or east.
The challenge is that while acknowledging this situation, American administration does minimal to deter Moscow, through statements or actions, from believing that the situation will not shift further in its favour in the near future.
Divergent Views
Therefore, the Kremlin is confident that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its allies are nearing depletion. Their reason to accept conditions that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is virtually nonexistent. There may be many attempts to stop fighting, but they will carry on as long as Russia's leader remains highly assured in the outcome.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still endure, progressively conceding civilians and areas but averting a complete military breakdown until situations evolve in its favour.
Existing Situation
Realistically, there are no actual prerequisites for a armistice. Now, individual motivations are entering the equation: leadership ambitions to mediate resolution and secure international recognition, and Ukrainian leadership's double obstacles – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the flag against any plan Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their attention does not move to homefront challenges. And although their mission will now be significantly challenging after recent developments, it remains very improbable that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These two forces are guiding negotiations.
Summary and Prospects
It took a just a single week to eliminate the 28 points of the most recent proposal. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by Washington, pushback by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with soothing efforts of representatives, and finally, recent disclosures, all did their job.
While new initiatives based on previous concepts are imminent, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter diplomatic offensives from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and show particular unwillingness to modify developments, if they remain united and enhance their military capacity at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to repel nightly air assaults will, for the coming months, mainly require ongoing international assistance.
